FxGlobalHub: Daily News: Can Russia and Ukraine Reach A Peace Agreement?

Russian President declines direct meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declined to meet directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey on Thursday. Instead, he sent a lower-level delegation to participate in the planned peace talks, while President Zelenskyy stated that his Defense Minister would lead the Ukrainian delegation.

This would be the first direct talks between the two sides since March 2022, but hopes for a major breakthrough have been dashed by U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that no progress would be made unless he and Putin met face to face.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, telling reporters that Washington “does not expect much” from the Ukraine talks in Istanbul.

Russian Head of Delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture, stated that he expected Ukrainian representatives to arrive for the talks at 10:00am local time on Friday in Istanbul.

Direct talks after 3 years of stalemate

The situation remains tense as U.S. Senator Marco Rubio called the current state of negotiations a “deadlock” and said he would be traveling to Istanbul to meet with the Turkish Foreign Minister and the Ukrainian delegation on Friday.

This diplomatic chaos reflects the deep animosity between the parties and the unpredictability caused by President Trump’s intervention since his return to the White House in January, his actions have often caused concern for Ukraine and its European allies.

The Russian delegation is led by Vladimir Medinsky, a former Minister of Culture who supervised the rewriting of history textbooks to reflect Moscow's view of the war. The delegation includes a Deputy Minister of Defense, a Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the head of military intelligence.

The key members of the Russian team, including Medinsky, were part of the last direct peace talks in Istanbul in March 2022. Medinsky confirmed Thursday that Russia views the new round of talks as a continuation of the negotiations that were interrupted three years ago.

Russian demands and Ukrainian rejection

Currently, as Russia controls nearly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, Putin remains steadfast in his long-standing demands: Ukraine must make territorial concessions, renounce its ambitions to join NATO, and become a neutral country.

Ukraine rejects these terms, considering them equivalent to surrender, and is seeking future security guarantees from global powers, particularly from the U.S..

Forex trader’s takeaways:

• 🔹 Geopolitical uncertainty continues to be a key driver for Forex traders, with ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine influencing EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD volatility.

• 🔹 U.S. involvement and any potential security guarantees for Ukraine could impact USD strength, especially as the U.S. Dollar reacts to shifts in global risk sentiment.

• 🔹 Gold remains a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical instability, and Forex traders may look for long gold positions as trade tensions persist.

• 🔹 Oil prices and commodity linked currencies like CAD may see fluctuations depending on how the situation develops, with rising concerns over supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict.

• 🔹 Risk management is key in such uncertain times; traders should watch for any developments that could influence global sentiment and react quickly to market shifts.

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