FxGlobalHub: Scenarios and News analysis of XAUUSD: PPI, Inflation expectations & Gold rally on China’s tariff response

Key U.S. economic indicators and inflation sentiment

At 12:30pm (UTC), the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) is set to be released, with core PPI projected to rise by 0.3%, a sharp rebound from last month’s - 0.1%. Headline PPI m/m is expected to climb to 0.2%, versus 0% previously.

Later at 2:00pm (UTC), consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data will be published. These reports are crucial for the forex market, especially in the context of rising inflation risks due to President Trump’s tariff escalation including a newly announced 125% retaliatory tariff on Chinese goods.

Gold price scenarios

XAUUSD continues its rally, fueled by China’s aggressive countermeasures. However, volatility remains high as markets brace for both inflationary data and central bank reactions.

🔹 Scenario 1 (most likely): Price spikes to $3,232, pulls back to $3,220, then resumes upward toward $3,245.

🔹 Scenario 2: Dips to $3,203, then bounces back higher.

🔹 Scenario 3: Breakout directly to $3,245 without major correction.

Forex trading recommendations:

🔹 Watch News closely for potential fakeouts or breakout spikes amid inflation data and trade tensions.

🔹 USD/CNH could experience high volatility with China’s 125% tariff response.

🔹 Core inflation and consumer sentiment data will shape short-term direction for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

🔹 Rising PPI may boost Fed hawkish sentiment, though traders should be cautious given broader geopolitical risks.

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