FxGlobalHub: Scenarios and News Analysis of XAUUSD: US PPI and Unemployment Claims Report

The link between PPI, CPI, and Gold prices

PPI measures the change in prices of goods and services at the producer level, which is a measure of inflation before it reaches consumers.

This data is closely related to the CPI (Consumer Price Index). If PPI cools down, there is a high chance that CPI will also decrease next month - a positive signal for the US economy.

This could create a basis for the FED to consider cutting interest rates, reducing the strength of the USD and supporting the rise of gold.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold has broken out of its sideways structure after the CPI release, but the next uptrend may require a correction to attract liquidity.

Three possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Gold prices fall to the $2,925 - $2,927 range to gain liquidity, then rebound to a new high around $2.95x.

Scenario 2: If buying pressure is strong, gold may rise straight to $2.95x without any correction, especially if there is positive geopolitical news related to the Ukraine negotiations.

Scenario 3: Gold prices continue to move sideways in the $2,932 - $2,948 range. When the news comes out, prices may pull back in both directions and then return to the equilibrium zone.

Among these, Scenario 1 is currently seen as the most likely outcome.